halfacanuck

Disclaimer: The opinions expressed on this site do not necessarily reflect my actual opinions.

June 28, 2004

Election prediction

I decided I'd stick my neck out and predict the outcome of today's voting. While I consider the current consensus -- a very tight race resulting in a minority, with the question of who'll lead it too close to call -- to be the most likely scenario, it's also not very interesting (in the sense that everyone else is saying it).

Thus I'm going to take a chance and say the Liberals are going to win it with a bigger minority than anyone's predicting. Based on the SES poll I mentioned in my previous post, as well as a feeling that people have disengaged somewhat from the national posturing and are instead focussing on local issues and candidates (which tends to favor the incumbents), as well as my gut feeling that Harper's party (given the sheer number of Tories going off-message, and the resulting suspicion of a hidden agenda that inspires) have lost favor, particularly in Ontario, I feel that's the most likely "surprise" outcome, if there is to be one.

Here's my utterly unscientific seat projection:

Liberals124
Conservatives100
NDP32
Bloc Quebecois50
Green1
Independent1

Odds are I'll be proven wrong and the pollsters proven right, but at least this is more interesting than the usual "too close to call," right?

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