Disclaimer: The opinions expressed on this site do not necessarily reflect my actual opinions.

June 10, 2004

I'm always right

As I discussed recently, it's extremely unlikely that Stephen Harper and Gilles Duceppe will form a coalition should the Conservatives win a minority. New poll data suggests that Canadians are firmly opposed to such a deal, but mostly in favour of a coalition between Paul Martin's Liberals and Jack Layton's NDP.

Ipsos-Reid claims 61% of respondents considered a Tory/Bloc coalition unacceptable, but that's slightly misleading since it includes people who either didn't have an opinion or refused to answer. Once those people are removed from the data, the figure jumps to 64%. But much more important for Harper is support outside of Quebec. Once Quebeckers are discounted, the figure becomes 72% -- nearly three-quarters of non-Quebec Canadians disapprove of a Tory/Bloc coalition. That's not good, from Harper's perspective, especially since 74% of Ontarians also disapprove.

The figures are pretty bleak for Duceppe, too. 43% of Quebeckers who expressed an opinion said they disapprove of a Tory/Bloc coalition, while 58% said they'd approve of a Liberal/NDP alliance. Nationwide 60% of Canadians with an opinion either way said they'd approve of a Liberal/NDP coalition, with 65% of Ontarians supporting such an arrangement.

To sum up, then:

  1. It's not going to happen
  2. I'm always right

The poll data also shows no change in the overall party rankings, with the Liberals and Conservatives standing firm at 32% and 31% respectively. This lends support to my contention that the Liberal backlash is bottoming out, while the Tory surge has peaked. With the Liberals announcing a new negative campaign against Harper's policies (what they should've been doing all along), I predict the two parties will begin to diverge once more, with the Liberals gaining points from both the Tories and the NDP.


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